WASHINGTON – Ronald Reagan's defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger, credited with engineering the demise of the Soviet Union, once predicted – because of illegal immigration and social unrest south of the border – the U.S. would be at war with Mexico by 2003.
As the U.S. becomes increasingly concerned about just those issues – and one more, the growing power and violence of the drug cartels operating in and around the border – some U.S. intelligence and military analysts are dusting off Weinberger's "Operation Aztec" battle plan for review....
Likewise, in a 1994 Pentagon briefing paper dealing with "deployment of U.S. troops in Mexico as a result of widespread economic and social chaos," Donald E. Schultz, a professor of national security at the U.S. Army's War College around the same time wrote: "A hostile government could put U.S. investments in Mexico in danger, jeopardize access to oil, produce a flood of political refugees and economic migrants to the north."
Meanwhile, Mexican President Vicente Fox is indeed concerned about his country's internal security. A few days ago, he summoned to Sinaloa a meeting with top-level officials to discuss various issues of Mexican national security....
Oddly, however, the border with the U.S. was a very low priority for Fox and his advisers. They were concerned more with their own southern borders with Belize and Guatemala, where Mexico faces its own illegal immigration crisis.
It seems unavoidable that the U.S.-Mexico border is going to be the big issue in the 2006 mid-term elections in the U.S., whether or not it is a major issue for Mexican politicians vying for political office next year...
More than 40 Percent of Mexicans live below the poverty line. Although Mexican officials tend to brag only 3.2 percent of the population is unemployed, CIA experts explain that more than 25 percent of those labeled as working are in reality, and according to any western standards, severely under employed....
Security experts claim a variety of groups and organizations plan to play an active role in the coming election campaign, hoping to bring down the Fox administration as well as the present military and police establishments....
The Mexican and the U.S. administrations, each government for reasons of its own, are doing their utmost to dodge issues around the border-crossing epidemic from Mexico to the U.S. As politicians in Washington are trying to avoid coping with public opinion or evade voicing support to such initiatives as the Minuteman Project and the Yuma Patriots, these very issues do not escape the eyes of the Department of Homeland Security and immigration authorities.
The above data when added to the overall, possibly shaky, political situation in Mexico, and with Fox's open disregard for mutual border respect, the U.S. is faced with a dangerously looming confrontation with her supposedly friendly neighbor in the south.